VOLUME 33 - N. 2

Abstract:

All large-scale surveys need to be better focused on environmental decision making, and statistical developments in recent years have aided this process through development of predictive models and by producing summaries of results to better inform us about the consequences of management (e.g., land use, pollution-abatement, etc.) decisions with regard to bird populations. We describe recently-developed analysis methods for the Christmas Bird Count, and explain how these approaches assist in summarizing the data and better integrating the survey into bird conservation activities. Hierarchical models, ft using Bayesian methods, provide estimates of population change that accommodate effort adjustments. Multispecies summaries of change can also be modeled hierarchically, resulting in state of the birds status summaries. Finally, integration of Christmas Bird Count data with North American Breeding Bird Survey data enhances the quality of estimation of change for North American birds.